History had recorded the indication of polarization among the ASEAN Member States towards China and the U.S. during the existing conflicts or crises in the region, such as the Vietnam War, the Cambodian conflict, the East Asian economic crisis, and the ongoing South China Sea (SCS) dispute. Moreover, recent surveys and studies on Southeast Asia’s regional order had supported the indication. This study aims to measure the geopolitical influence index of China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. in Southeast Asia from 2005 to 2018 by expanding the timeline application of factor analysis to analyze the indication of polarization among the ASEAN Member States in Southeast Asia’s regional order. The results show that between 2005 to 2018: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand were generally more associated with the U.S. and Japan, while Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam were generally more associated with China and Russia. The study discusses the results from economic, political, and security perspectives to explain the phenomenon.

Speaker: Arianto C. Hartono (BAPPENAS and Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan)

Discussant: Evan A. Laksmana (Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore)

Thursday, 28 October at 10.00-11.30am WIB

Join on Zoom (registration required): https://bit.ly/fkp28october
or YouTube bit.ly/fkp-live

Thumbnail photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash